Consumer Confidence in Colombia

The Consumer Confidence Index (ICC) measures Colombian households' perceptions of their own economic situation and that of the country. It is produced by Fedesarrollo -- a private research centre, not a public agency -- from its Consumer Opinion Survey (EOC), run since November 2001 in five cities (Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla and, since November 2013, Bucaramanga). It is Colombia's benchmark confidence gauge and a lead indicator for private consumption.

It is a balance, not a base-100 index: the share of negative answers is subtracted from the share of positive ones, so it ranges from -100 to +100 and can turn negative (zero means optimists and pessimists cancel out). The ICC is the weighted average of its two components: the Consumer Expectations Index (IEC, one-year expectations, 60% weight) and the Economic Conditions Index (ICE, the household's current situation and whether it is a good time to buy durables, 40% weight).

It anticipates household spending, the largest component of Colombia's GDP. A sustained improvement in the ICC usually precedes stronger consumption and more purchases of durable goods, housing and vehicles. The expectations component (IEC) is the most forward-looking, while the current-conditions component (ICE) describes the present. Banco de la República tracks it as a gauge of domestic demand when setting its policy rate.

It is a perception measure, not a spending one: its correlation with actual consumption is imperfect, and confidence can shift on political headlines or perceived inflation without spending changing. It covers only five cities, leaving out rural areas and mid-sized towns. Being a balance, the same move in points does not mean the same near zero as at the extremes, and the series has a methodological break in November 2013 when Bucaramanga was added.