Industrial Production in Hungary

Hungary's Industrial Production Index measures the level of output in industry, covering manufacturing, mining and energy supply. Published by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), it is one of the most closely watched cyclical indicators because it anticipates the economic cycle.

KSH aggregates the sub-indices of the various industrial branches, weighted by their share of value added, on a base year (index 100). The data are adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects and reported as year-on-year and month-on-month changes (%).

It is closely tied to the economic cycle and GDP and is related to business-climate indicators (PMI) that tend to lead it. Hungarian industry relies heavily on the auto sector and on exports to Germany, so it gives early clues on the pulse of the economy and the forint.

It is subject to revision: when a month's figure is released, the previous month is often revised. It is volatile, sensitive to the number of working days and to one-off factors; the weight of the auto sector means a few plants can move the headline index.