JPY net non-commercial positions (COT) in Japan

The net position of NON-COMMERCIAL traders in yen futures: the long contracts they hold open minus the short ones. 'Non-commercial' is the label the CFTC uses for those trading to profit from price moves (funds, asset managers, CTAs), as opposed to commercial traders, who use the future to hedge a genuine business risk.

Non-commercial long positions minus non-commercial short positions, in number of contracts, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitments of Traders report. The figures reflect the close of business on Tuesday and are released the following Friday at 15:30 Eastern time.

It measures POSITIONING, not the economy. A deeply negative net figure means speculative money is short the yen: if the price rises, those positions have to be closed by buying, which can amplify the move. Historical extremes are read as a sign that a trend may be exhausting itself.

It arrives with a three-day lag, so it does not describe today's positioning. It only covers US-regulated futures, missing the spot market, over-the-counter trades and venues abroad. Moreover, the line between commercial and non-commercial traders is set by the participant's own filing, which does not always reflect their true intent.