Trade Balance in Mexico

Measures the gap between the value of Mexico's merchandise exports and imports, in US dollars. A positive balance signals a trade surplus and a negative one a deficit. It is published by INEGI together with Banxico.

Calculated as FOB merchandise exports minus FOB merchandise imports, drawn from customs records. INEGI releases both original and seasonally adjusted figures, split between oil and non-oil trade.

The trade balance shapes the supply of and demand for dollars and the peso exchange rate: a persistent deterioration weighs on the currency, while a sustained surplus supports it. It is closely watched given its link to manufacturing and exports to the US.

Highly sensitive to oil prices and to maquiladora activity; the original figure carries strong seasonality, so the seasonally adjusted series or the 12-month cumulative total is more telling. It is subject to revisions.