Economic Climate Indicator in Portugal

Instituto Nacional de Estadistica de Portugal · Monthly · Importance 30

2.8 (Jul-26) ABS · points · Mensual · CSV

About this indicator

Source	Statistics Portugal (INE)
Frequency	Monthly
Release	Ultimo dia habil del mes en curso, junto con la confianza del consumidor.
What it is	The Economic Climate Indicator condenses into a single index the business confidence of the four sectors surveyed by Portugal's INE (manufacturing, trade, construction and public works, and services). Unlike a simple average, it is estimated by factor analysis and calibrated against GDP growth.
How it's calculated	INE combines the extreme-response balances of the four sectoral business surveys through factor analysis; the resulting series is smoothed with a three-month moving average (seasonally adjusted) and calibrated against real GDP growth in volume terms.
Market implications	It is INE's benchmark leading indicator for the Portuguese business cycle: sustained rises point to accelerating GDP, while sustained falls tend to precede slowdowns.
Limitations	Because it is calibrated against GDP and smoothed with a three-month moving average, it responds with a lag to one-off shocks in a single sector or a single month.