Consumer Confidence (GfK) in United Kingdom

GfK's UK Consumer Confidence index measures households' perception of the general state of the economy and of their personal finances, based on a representative sample of the population. The survey has run since 1974, originally commissioned by the European Commission.

It is compiled from a sample of around 2,000 people aged 16 and over, who answer questions on past developments and expectations for the next twelve months regarding the economy and their own finances. Quotas by age, sex, region and social class ensure the sample is representative, and the index combines five sub-components into an overall balance.

It is released very soon after the month closes, making it a useful leading indicator of household spending, which accounts for the bulk of UK GDP. A drop in confidence tends to foreshadow weaker consumption and can weigh on sterling and on growth expectations.

As a perception survey, it is subject to the usual sampling limitations and can be heavily swayed by headlines and by the prevailing economic mood, rather than by actual spending; it is best read alongside the retail sales data.