Crude oil net non-commercial positions (COT) in United States

The net position of NON-COMMERCIAL traders in the crude oil futures market: the long contracts they hold minus the short ones. "Non-commercial" is the CFTC's label for those trading to profit from price moves (funds, asset managers, CTAs), as opposed to commercial traders, who use the future to hedge a genuine business risk.

Non-commercial long positions minus non-commercial short positions, in number of contracts, from the CFTC's weekly Commitments of Traders report. The figures reflect the Tuesday close and are released the following Friday at 3:30pm Eastern time.

It measures positioning, not the economy. A deeply negative net figure shows speculative money is short: if the crude price rises, those positions have to be closed by buying, which can amplify the move. Historical extremes are read as a sign that a trend is running out of steam.

It arrives with a three-day lag, so it does not describe today's position. It only covers US-regulated futures, missing the spot market, over-the-counter trades and overseas venues. And the line between commercial and non-commercial is drawn by each participant's own filing, which does not always reflect their true intent.