Government net lending/borrowing in United States

International Monetary Fund · Annual · Importance

IMF forecast (WEO): 2026: -7.5% 2027: -7.4% 2028: -7.6% 2029: -7.5% 2030: -7.5% 2031: -7.4%

-7.4 (2031) ANUAL · % of GDP · Annual · CSV

Recessions COVID recession

Period	% of GDP
Jan 2031	-7.4
Jan 2030	-7.5
Jan 2029	-7.5
Jan 2028	-7.6
Jan 2027	-7.4
Jan 2026	-7.5
Jan 2025	-6.8
Jan 2024	-7.9
Jan 2023	-7.9
Jan 2022	-3.7
Jan 2021	-11.5
Jan 2020	-14.1
Jan 2019	-5.8
Jan 2018	-5.3
Jan 2017	-4.8
Jan 2016	-4.4
Jan 2015	-3.5
Jan 2014	-4.0
Jan 2013	-4.6
Jan 2012	-8.1
Jan 2011	-9.7
Jan 2010	-11.0
Jan 2009	-13.2
Jan 2008	-6.6
Jan 2007	-2.9
Jan 2006	-2.0
Jan 2005	-3.1
Jan 2004	-4.2
Jan 2003	-4.8
Jan 2002	-3.8
Jan 2001	-0.5

About this indicator

Source

International Monetary Fund

Frequency

Annual

Release

Published annually (with quarterly advance estimates in some economies), subject to revision with the national accounts.

What it is

The US government deficit is the federal budget shortfall when spending exceeds revenue over the fiscal year (October to September). It is reported in dollars and as a share of GDP.

How it's calculated

The Treasury reports it in the Monthly Treasury Statement, alongside CBO and OMB projections, as the gap between federal receipts and outlays. The monthly and year-to-date balance is set against GDP.

Market implications

The deficit drives Treasury issuance needs and the federal debt path, and is a recurring focus of debt-ceiling standoffs. A sustained deterioration can push Treasury yields up and weigh on rating agencies' assessments.

Limitations

The monthly figure is highly seasonal, with receipts bunched in certain months, and can be distorted by calendar shifts and one-off measures. The headline should be read apart from the primary balance, which excludes interest whose weight grows with higher rates.