Quarterly PCE Price Index (Headline) in United States

Bureau of Economic Analysis · Quarterly · Importance

5.1% (Q2-26) QOQ · % · Quarterly · CSV

Recessions COVID recession

Period	%
Apr 2026	5.1%
Jan 2026	4.6%
Oct 2025	2.9%
Jul 2025	2.8%
Apr 2025	2.1%
Jan 2025	3.4%
Oct 2024	2.5%
Jul 2024	1.7%
Apr 2024	2.6%
Jan 2024	3.6%
Oct 2023	1.8%
Jul 2023	2.7%
Apr 2023	3.0%
Jan 2023	3.9%
Oct 2022	4.1%
Jul 2022	4.7%
Apr 2022	7.5%
Jan 2022	7.7%
Oct 2021	6.8%
Jul 2021	5.6%
Apr 2021	6.2%
Jan 2021	4.6%
Oct 2020	2.1%
Jul 2020	3.2%
Apr 2020	-1.6%
Jan 2020	1.4%
Oct 2019	1.6%
Jul 2019	1.0%
Apr 2019	2.3%
Jan 2019	0.8%
Oct 2018	1.5%
Jul 2018	1.3%
Apr 2018	2.1%
Jan 2018	2.8%
Oct 2017	2.4%
Jul 2017	1.4%
Apr 2017	0.8%
Jan 2017	2.4%
Oct 2016	1.8%
Jul 2016	1.4%
Apr 2016	2.6%
Jan 2016	0.2%
Oct 2015	-0.3%
Jul 2015	1.0%
Apr 2015	2.0%
Jan 2015	-1.8%
Oct 2014	-0.5%
Jul 2014	1.1%
Apr 2014	1.8%
Jan 2014	1.8%
Oct 2013	1.5%
Jul 2013	1.7%
Apr 2013	0.2%
Jan 2013	1.4%
Oct 2012	2.3%
Jul 2012	1.2%
Apr 2012	1.0%
Jan 2012	2.7%
Oct 2011	1.3%
Jul 2011	1.9%

About this indicator

Source

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) -- National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), Table 2.3.7. Published as part of the quarterly GDP release.

Frequency

Quarterly

Release

Alongside the quarterly GDP estimate (advance about one month after the quarter closes, then second and third estimates), 08:30 ET.

What it is

Measures the annualised quarterly change in the price index for all personal consumption expenditures (goods and services), the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. This is the HEADLINE version (includes food and energy) from the quarterly GDP release -- distinct from the monthly series ('Personal Income and Outlays' release) and from the core version already in the master.

How it's calculated

Chain-type price index for personal consumption expenditures, computed by the BEA from the national accounts; published as a seasonally adjusted annualised quarterly percent change (SAAR), calculated as ((level_t/level_t-1)^4-1)*100.

Market implications

It is the inflation gauge most closely watched by the Federal Reserve for its interest rate decisions (its 2% target is defined on PCE, not CPI). A hotter-than-expected reading pressures the Fed to hold or hike rates; a cooler one opens the door to cuts.

Limitations

Being quarterly and released alongside GDP, it lags the CPI or the monthly PCE reading, and is subject to revisions (GDP's 2nd and 3rd estimates) that can change the figure several times in the two months following quarter-end.